You've undoubtedly seen the recent headlines declaring that
10.2% of Americans are out of work. That is a huge amount of people out-of-work , and the
highest unemployment level since 1983. But if you dig a little deeper, you will find that 10.2% number is actually
"sugarcoated". The number is even higher when considering those who are no longer looking for employment.
In order to just keep up with population growth – or to keep the ranks of the unemployed from rising – there must be 125,000 jobs created each month according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. So the latest report of 190,000 jobs lost last Friday, really means we have fallen behind by 315,000 jobs, just last month.
Its tough for Mortgage-Backed Securities (
MBS) to rally with the Federal
Reserve's Securities Purchase (government stimulus package) starting to wind down - even despite the bad employment numbers.
MBS dictate long term
home loan interest rates. When these bonds go down in value, home loan rates conversely go up. It is obvious that
home loan rates will trend higher due to the reduced Fed buying… but this trend higher will not be in a straight line.